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I have three MLB tips for today’s game on Patreon, two of them are below.
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St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Tips:
STL – Dakota Hudson 3.31 ERA/4.25 FIP
MIL – Jason Alexander 2.42 ERA/3.62 FIP
I’m just not buying Jason Alexander as being this good. His strikeout rate is minimal and he is yet to give up a homerun this season. He’s not some magical unicorn pitcher who doesn’t give up homeruns. They are coming and I think they could come today. The Cards hit righties well with a 107 wRC+ and have been playing well of late.
Hudson has had similar luck of late and if this were another game I’d probably go against him. That said, he is the better pitcher overall and the Brewers hit worse against righties, a 102 wRC+.
I went back-and-forth between F5 and game, but the Brewers bullpen recent struggles put this over the top.
Cardinals Moneyline (+104)
Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox Betting Tips:
BAL – Dean Kremer 2.35 ERA/3.46 FIP
CHW – Johnny Cueto 2.95 ERA/3.65 FIP
Kremer gives up a ton of homeruns and the White Sox offense has started to heat up of late. They are one of the hottest offenses in baseball right now with a 141 wRC+ over the past two weeks. They have hit 32 homeruns in that span, best in baseball.
Cueto is a guy that pitches well, but won’t kill you. He doesn’t strikeout very many people and doesn’t allow many homeruns. I never know quite what I am going to get with him, but I never fear him. The Orioles have hit well over the past two weeks with a 105 wRC+ and the White Sox bullpen is struggling right now.
Orioles/White Sox Over 9 Runs (+100)
Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres Betting Tips:
PHI – Ranger Suarez 4.43 ERA/4.26 FIP
SDP – Joe Musgrove 1.59 ERA/2.66 FIP